December 02, 2011

Military.com|by Philip Ewing

Europe's financial crisis and NATO members' "underinvestment" in defense could mean that within 10 years, the alliance might not be able to mount an operation like this year's Libya intervention, the U.S. ambassador to NATO warned Friday.

But overall Ivo Daalder -- formally known as the United States permanent representative to NATO -- was bullish on the future of the alliance, which he said will remain a key pillar of the international system even amid global budget cuts and a shifting U.S. strategic focus.

Daalder said this year's international intervention in Libya proved that the alliance has become what he called "NATO 3.0," having progressed from its Cold War incarnation, through its expansion, into a relevant operational force. Still, he acknowledged the Libya campaign also revealed NATO's shortcomings and suggested that its lessons could help inform the next steps for members all dealing with reduced defense budgets.

For example, Daalder acknowledged that years of "underinvestment" meant European militaries quickly ran short of bombs as they kept up the air campaign, and the prolonged operations showed how much alliance members still depend on support from the United States. Specifically, without American air-to-air refueling and surveillance support, Europe probably could not have kept up the war.

"It was not a major air campaign, and it stretched them," Daalder said of the European militaries. So even as it proved NATO could respond quickly and work together closely, it also showed that Europe must plan better now for conflicts or risk not being able to handle them at all. And the Libya operation was half the size of the NATO response in Kosovo, "which no one ever thought was a big war," Daalder said.

One idea to help NATO stay ready is to create multi-national stockpiles of precision-guided bombs, Daalder said, so the alliance always would have weapons on hand, no matter its members' individual national stockpiles. The challenge is getting members to keep up their contributions as their economies struggle.

Another idea is for European militaries to plan collectively so they can be as efficient as possible in building militaries that don't duplicate others. Daalder gave the example of Denmark, which decided to abandon its submarine fleet, based on the idea that if it ever found itself in a major war, it would almost certainly be an ally with Great Britain, the Netherlands and other European naval powers. So instead of duplicating others' submarine forces, Denmark instead focused on creating what Daalder called Europe's "most deployable" army.

NATO and Europe must do more of this sort of thing, he said, so NATO as a whole can keep up its ability to act. If it doesn't -- "if current trends continue," Daalder said -- even a relatively small operation like Libya could be outside the reach of the alliance after about a decade.

Daalder deferred questions about the future of the American military presence in Europe -- Washington has made no decisions about what to do, he insisted -- but he did acknowledge everyone understands the American backstop of NATO would shrink.

"I think our allies realize that when you're reducing your budget by $500 billion in 10 years, there are going to be some changes in your defense posture," Daalder said.

That doesn't mean NATO has no future, however, he argued -- just the opposite.

"President Obama has been quite clear about this -- we live in a world in which virtually everything we do requires partners," Daalder said. "Our partners of first choice and second choice and third choice all are in Europe. This is the way of the future: a standing alliance with other countries. If you didn't have it, you'd want it."

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